– Predicted Runs per Delivery: We consider runs per delivery rather than strike rate. In this blog we will concentrate on two metrics, which we use to model the evolution of batting performance throughout an innings:
For example, who are the most dangerous players in the final 10 overs of an innings and how do they typically go about attacking these final deliveries? How to quantify innings progression Furthermore, we can extend this further to observe not just how players build their own innings, but by assessing the star performers in certain periods of a match. We can use this to compare the approach both players and teams take in constructing an innings. In the case of 50 over cricket, this could be comparing how a player typically aims to build their innings in terms of their run-rate, but also through measures such as controlled shot proportion. The data science team at OptaPro have developed methods to compare and assess player performance based on how their metrics change throughout an innings. To gain a better understanding of how a particular batsman plays we must consider measurements that evolve throughout an innings. Building an understanding of innings progression However, at the end of the day’s play, the entries for each player on the scorecard look remarkably similar in terms of strike-rate. Although this is quite an extreme example for Gayle, it is not uncommon for him to start slowly before switching gear and accelerating at a rate that few other players can match. His first 50 runs came in 76 balls and his second 50 in just 24. In typical fashion, Root was the glue in England’s chase and progressed to 100 at a consistent run a ball rate.
Here we get a better idea of how their innings developed. So why would someone who had watched the game be inclined to describe their innings differently? Let us look at the innings progression to 100 runs below to see why. In this case both have a final strike rate of 105. To measure the speed of an innings on the scorecard, we typically use the innings strike rate (runs per 100 balls). To a casual cricket fan observing the scorecard, the verbs used to describe Root and Gayle’s innings might seem a little odd. Their final scores are Joe Root 102 off 97 balls. A glance at the scorecard shows that Joe Root has sauntered to a hundred off 96 balls and Chris Gayle has blasted himself to a hundred off 100 balls. England have just eased to a once formidable target of 361.
It’s February 20 th 2019, the first One Day International (ODI) between West Indies and England at Bridgetown, Barbados. – In the final 10 overs, England’s Jos Buttler accelerates earlier than anyone else at the World Cup, with a steady but consistent increase of scoring rate throughout overs 41-50. – Of World Cup opening batsmen, England’s pair of Jonny Bairstow and Jason Roy both rapidly increase their scoring rate after a couple of overs to a level exceeded by only Chris Gayle. – The OptaPro data science team have developed methods to describe how scoring rate and controlled shot probability change for players and teams throughout an innings.